The food chain is broken

On paper, we produce enough food to feed our current population of 7 billion. Yet an estimated 805 million people go to bed hungry each night, and hidden hunger – or micronutrient deficiency – affects an additional 2 billion.

Poverty, political instability, income inequity and overconsumption in some regions of the world all play pivotal roles. But the 9 Billion Bowls report from Thomson Reuters turns its focus on a specific link in the global chain – the production and delivery of food.

It’s here where the greatest challenges – and brightest opportunities – for feeding our planet lie.

Wasting away

Of the food that we do grow the United Nations estimates that 30% goes to waste somewhere in the production and delivery process – and simply never reaches our tables. And it’s not just the food itself that’s lost; it’s also the water, human effort and resources that went into its production.

The increasing intensity of climate change

Perhaps no other industry has been more negatively affected by climate change than agriculture. Droughts, floods, fires and freezes all do their damage directly to global crops. Yields suffer. People suffer.

Empty stomachs, seething streets

Hunger is both intensely personal and inevitably societal. In fact, there is a direct correlation between food insecurity and social instability.

Affordable and available food helps form the bedrock of stable societies. When prices rise too high, or availability becomes too low, people frequently take to the streets out of frustration – and desperation.

The chart below tracks food-related riots globally since 2007 against food and oil prices. The most notable period for unrest is the cluster from 2007-2008, during the Great Recession, when both food and oil prices spiked. … continue reading

More bowls to fill by the day

In coming years, the situation will be even more daunting: Our population is projected to reach 9 billion by 2050. Yet 80% of our arable land is already in use.

As these issues converge and intensify, we are forced to confront perhaps the most critical question of our time: How will we fill 9 billion bowls by 2050?

Big data. Big brains. Big answers.

Perhaps no other area is so ripe for data-based solutions than the production and delivery of food.

In fact, a quiet revolution is already taking place. A diverse group of scientists, students, analysts and inventors is turning insights into innovation to meet the hungry demands of our future. They’re leveraging big data and leading-edge technologies in entirely new ways to get far better results at every link in the food supply chain. Better food, more of it, with less waste and fewer chemicals.

The 9 Billion Bowls report from Thomson Reuters tells their stories in a single place

Ph.D. candidates at MIT are building drones that spot plant disease in crops previously out of view. Thomson Reuters scientists are using satellites and sophisticated algorithms to accurately predict weather patterns a full year in advance. Geneticists are breeding super seeds designed to withstand drought, heat and pestilence. Two young women in the U.K. have developed a $3 fungus sensor that could save $5 billion worth of crops.

Governments are key to the solution

And in the public sector, initiatives such as Global Open Data for Agriculture and Nutrition (GODAN) are helping countries develop open (big) data to help feed the world. As one of its chief proponents, Dr. Catherine Woteki, puts it:

Together, these are the stories of how big data and big brains are beating back hunger. For good.

How can a government’s open data policies help feed more people?

Dr. Woteki says that governments have vast amounts of valuable data, and we need to continue to make it more available and transparent – particularly in the area of agriculture and food production. This is why the U.S. government was one of the founding partners of the Global Open Data for Agriculture and Nutrition (GODAN) initiative. GODAN focuses on building high-level policy and public and private institutional support for open data.

Dr. Woteki believes this type of open data will be instrumental to feeding more people. She gives two examples:

Farmers in the developing world are already using cell phones to help them market their crops and find the best prices. She says farmers can check where others are marketing competing crops on a given day, and quickly find a different market where no one is selling the same goods.

Seeding change

Because rice is central to feeding billions of people – now and in the future – the Philippines-based IRRI team is leveraging data and technology to create rice that delivers higher yields and is more resistant to global warming and other environmental threats.

That team includes Dr. Hei Leung, who is splicing rice chromosomes to create greater diversity, and Dr. Ruaraidh Sackville Hamilton, who is preserving that variety for generations in a highly sophisticated gene bank.

Will China be the world’s breadbasket of the future?

Until recently, it was inconceivable that the most populous country in the world would become a net food exporter. But according to Thomson Reuters data analysts, that is exactly the prediction over the next decade. China is making a concerted effort to up the stakes in food production, and genetically modified (GM) foods will play a crucial part.

Follow the patents

How do we know? Data analysts recently looked at trends in crop breeding technology, specifically at the countries with the most patent activity and companies or organizations generating the most patent requests in the area of crop breeding technology.

The United States and China alone represent 68% of all of the patent documents associated with crop breeding around the world. These two countries are larger than the closest competing country by at least a factor of five.

It’s notable that while the U.S. has more patent applications over the past 5 years than China, the majority of the U.S. documents are coming from a small collection of private companies, while the Chinese applications are coming from a larger number of academic institutions. Once China’s private industry begins patenting, there is a high likelihood that they will pass the U.S. in the number of crop breeding patent applications produced.

Unsurprisingly, current Chinese filings are primarily related to rice breeding, but they also show more diversification compared to filings in the U.S.

Bottom line? Based on this recent filing data, it’s clear that China has taken a significant interest in crop breeding and is using these innovations to position themselves not only to meet the needs of their own population, but to potentially challenge the U.S. for the title of Breadbasket of the World.

Precision agriculture, sustainable intensification

Today’s farmers put Silicon Valley to shame, with their adoption of data, analytics and technology to maximize both yields and efficiencies. One of the most promising tools is Data Share from Thomson Reuters.

This phone app enables farmers to confidentially share crop data and photos. Collectively, it gives them and other farmers a very accurate, unbiased view of crop health in specific locations. Imagine farmers all over the globe uploading such data in real time, on a regular basis.

How will Data Share help farmers plant more efficiently?

The key to feeding more people is connecting farmers like Larry Winger to the bigger global picture so they can adapt to changing markets and climate conditions. Increase knowledge and increase yields.

Technology taking root

Larry Winger says tools like Data Share are vital to facing the challenges of the future. He’s been farming for over 40 years in Benton County, Indiana, and is as attached to his tablet as he is to his combine.

Enter the drones

Ph.D. candidates Edward Obropta, Forrest Meyen and Nikhil Vadhavkar from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology recently beat out 193 competitors to win the Thomson Reuters-sponsored 2015 MIT $100,000 Entrepreneurship Competition.

Precision agriculture in motion

Their start-up company, Raptor Maps, uses camera-loaded drones to quickly scan acres of planted fields, and detect the earliest signs of pests and disease.

Going beyond human vision

Multi-spectral cameras, detecting visible and infrared light, are one of the many tools they use to create highly precise maps of analyzed crops. Their edge is in leveraging multiple sources of data and closing the loop with crop scouts to ensure the client-customized analytics are accurate. Farmers, for example, use this data to pinpoint and treat problem areas.

Drones are revolutionizing agriculture, says Nikhil. And everyone—from farm to table—will benefit.

The result? Raptor Maps’ service can help clients predict yields and drastically cut crop loss - as well as the need for expensive and environmentally harmful chemicals.

A $3 solution to a multi-billion dollar problem

Whilst drones scan the skies, equally innovative work is happening on the ground. Soil pathogens like Phytophthora destroy $5-7 billion worth of global crops each year. FungiAlert, a new start-up from Imperial College, London, students Kerry O’Donnelly and Angela de Manzanos has a $3 solution.

Growing up

In a warehouse in Portage, Indiana, entrepreneur and earth scientist Robert Colangelo is literally taking this idea to the next level, with an indoor vertical farm. It uses one-tenth the land of a traditional farm and produces 26 harvests per year.

Green Sense Farms is built on 30,000 square feet of warehouse space where Colangelo and his team grow non-genetically modified lettuces and herbs without using pesticides, herbicides, sunlight, soil or rain.

Rapid urbanization and inefficient supply chains

More than 50% of the world’s population resides in cities, and by 2050 this will increase to 80%. To sustainably feed these swelling urban populations, cities must become smarter and produce more food locally.

A growing movement: urban agriculture

Urban agriculture has come to the fore as a sustainable solution for offsetting inefficient transport chains and producing food literally where people live – all with a range of cascading benefits: reduced carbon footprint, increased nutrients, fresher food and far less food waste.

What will it take to create more resilient cities?

Kevin Frediani proposes re-enabling local food supply chains, such as market gardens – that were once central to urban living – and connecting them with existing efficient rural production and supply chains.

Longer-term, more accurate weather forecasting

Corey Cherr and his team are driven to be able to accurately predict weather well into the future, giving farmers and commodity professionals enough notice of what coming growing seasons may bring – so they can plan their planting and strategy accordingly.

And help eliminate those spectacular crop failures in the process.

While weather prediction has always contained a margin of error, it’s even more challenging today as the pace and intensity of climate change take hold. Droughts are more common. Heat more intense. Floods more violent.

Forewarned is forearmed

To help eliminate those surprises, his team is using an innovative combination of satellite imagery, deep data resources, on-the-ground crop reporting, proprietary algorithms and expert analysis. They are connecting the dots between historical patterns and current conditions to make more accurate and longer-range forecasts.

Busts versus bumper crops in South America

This figure shows the extreme contrast in satellite imagery and field observations between an exceptionally strong drought (2011/12), in which approximately 25% of the soybean crop in southern Brazil and Argentina was lost, and perhaps the most favorable season of recent decades (2014/15), in which wet weather raised production 10% to 15% above normal across southern Brazil and central Argentina.

Rather than being hit when it’s too late to react, the ability to see these patterns in advance helps farmers decide what to plant, how much, and when to send it to market – a win-win for farmers and the food supply chain.

Land rights and hunger are intimately connected

As this report makes clear, smart data and smart people are coming together in powerful new ways to help feed our planet. One of the most astonishing matchups has already shown remarkable results: Tax and accounting professionals from Thomson Reuters are helping to secure the land rights of rural family farmers in the developing world.

What does securing land rights have to do with growing more food?

Everything. There is a direct correlation between land ownership and food yields. Intuitively, this makes sense. When you know that your property is protected by a legal document, you are willing to invest in it, assured that the food you grow is yours to eat or sell – a powerful incentive to grow as much as possible.

Data that delivers documentation

But in many parts of the world, those documents have been hard to come by. This is particularly devastating because three-quarters of the world’s chronically hungry live in rural areas of the developing world – the very places where land rights are difficult, expensive and sometimes dangerous to secure.

Enter Aumentum

Which is where Aumentum comes in. This software, developed by Thomson Reuters Tax & Accounting professionals, helps communities in the developing world conduct rapid inventory of land rights so the governments may issue documentary evidence attesting to those rights.

It uses a sophisticated mix of geographic information systems and mapping tools that digitize new features on aerial or satellite images, and links spatial information as displayed on printed maps – all of which helps document who is the rightful property owner.

This irrefutable hard data secures land rights in places where such documentation never before existed. Places, as it turns out, often hungry for more food production.

The ripple effects of securing land rights go far beyond individual farmers and their families. As one expert put it:

On his LinkedIn blog, Alan Robbins poses the question:

What’s the one sentence you would use to describe the connection between property rights and food security?

See the surprising and wide-ranging responses here: LinkedIn channel

Cause for hope

Food security is about much more than food. Our supply chain is a complicated web of policy, climate, economics, finance, science and technology.

Many of these ideas were unimaginable even a decade ago. But today, smart data in the right hands has shifted the landscape, and raised real hope. When you look at these individual solutions scattered across the globe and across the food chain, it’s clear where we go next to help fill 9 billion bowls by 2050.

Making connections, raising awareness

According to Timothy Large from the Thomson Reuters Foundation, Data is the glue that connects the dots. And making those connections is vital to tackling food security because it enables people to share, spread and build on innovative solutions.